Vietnam’s economy closed the first nine months of 2026 with GDP growth of 9.01%. Yet behind the strong headline figure lies an increasingly differentiated growth structure: manufacturing, exports and asset accumulation are expanding rapidly, while domestic demand is growing at a slower pace. The return to a trade surplus in September is a positive signal, but the benefits of the current growth cycle remain unevenly distributed between the FDI sector and the domestic economy.

GDP grew 9.95% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from the first two quarters and bringing nine-month growth to 9.01%. Industry and construction expanded by 11.21%, contributing nearly half of the increase in total value added. Industrial production, exports and investment all maintained strong growth.

The key issue, therefore, is no longer simply whether the economy is growing, but how that growth is structured. The nine-month data show that the main momentum is increasingly concentrated in production, exports and asset accumulation, while domestic demand continues to expand at a slower pace.

Asset accumulation is becoming a prominent growth driver

On the expenditure side of GDP, final consumption increased by 8.51% in the first nine months, while asset accumulation rose by 17.88%. The gap was even wider in the third quarter, when asset accumulation grew by 21.39% compared with 8.96% growth in final consumption.

This marks an important shift in the composition of growth. The economy is accumulating assets at over twice the pace of consumption, indicating that a significant share of current resources is being directed toward expanding productive capacity rather than being absorbed immediately through consumption. If these assets are deployed efficiently, they could support additional growth capacity in the coming years. At the same time, as the asset base expands rapidly, the requirement for those assets to generate corresponding output, revenue and cash flow will become increasingly important.

Production is expanding strongly, but domestic demand is not keeping pace

The Index of Industrial Production increased by 12.3% in the first nine months, with manufacturing alone rising by 12.9%. Meanwhile, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reached VND 5,925.7 trillion, up 13.4% at current prices but only 7.8% after adjusting for price effects. Final consumption in GDP also increased by 8.51%, significantly below the growth rates of production and asset accumulation.

This gap points to an increasingly uneven pattern in domestic economic activity. Purchasing power continues to grow, but at a slower rate than the production side of the economy. This is particularly relevant for sectors that rely heavily on the domestic market, where sales growth may not be as favorable as the headline GDP figure suggests.

By contrast, the production sector is receiving substantial support from external demand. Exports of goods and services in GDP terms increased by 21.29% during the first nine months, while merchandise exports rose by 24.5%. This allows production to remain strong even as domestic consumption grows more slowly. The current picture therefore suggests that growth is being driven more strongly by production and exports, while sectors that depend heavily on domestic demand are facing a more challenging environment.

Exports are growing strongly, but the benefits are unevenly distributed

The divergence is also evident in the export structure. In the first nine months of 2026, the domestic economic sector exported USD 83.89 billion, up 7.5%, accounting for only 19.3% of total exports. By comparison, the foreign-invested sector recorded exports of USD 350.41 billion, up 29.4%, and accounted for 80.7% of the total.

The trade balance shows a similar divergence. The domestic sector recorded a trade deficit of USD 34.28 billion, while the FDI sector posted a surplus of USD 14.86 billion. This indicates that Vietnam’s strong export growth remains heavily concentrated in foreign-invested companies and internationally oriented production chains, while the domestic business sector is benefiting to a lesser extent.

This distinction is important when assessing the underlying health of the business sector. Strong aggregate export growth does not mean that all businesses are experiencing the same favorable cycle. The widening gap between the FDI sector and the domestic economy points to an increasingly differentiated growth environment.

Investment activity continues to expand at a high rate

Total realized investment across the economy reached VND 3,109.6 trillion in the first nine months, up 15.1% year-on-year. Of this, the State sector accounted for VND 931.0 trillion, up 17.3%; the non-State sector reached VND 1,649.2 trillion, up 14.0%; and the FDI sector recorded VND 529.4 trillion, up 14.5%.

Realized FDI in Vietnam reached USD 21.07 billion, an increase of 12.1% and the highest nine-month level recorded since 2022. Together with the 17.88% increase in asset accumulation, these figures point to an economy undergoing a significant expansion in both operating scale and its asset base.

The key issue to monitor in the next phase is how much additional output and income this expansion can generate. As assets grow faster than GDP and consumption, the quality of growth will increasingly depend on how effectively the newly accumulated assets are utilized.

September returned to a trade surplus after nine consecutive months of deficits

During the first nine months, total merchandise trade reached USD 888.02 billion. Exports amounted to USD 434.30 billion, up 24.5%, while imports rose more rapidly by 36.7% to USD 453.72 billion. As a result, the merchandise trade balance remained in a USD 19.42 billion deficit for the nine-month period.

September, however, marked a notable change. The merchandise trade balance returned to a surplus of USD 1.27 billion after nine consecutive months of deficits. September exports reached USD 59.48 billion, up 8.5% from the previous month, while imports totaled USD 58.21 billion, up 6.0%.

The September improvement is not yet sufficient to offset the large cumulative trade deficit, but it shows that export growth began to outpace import growth during the month. If this pattern continues into the fourth quarter, the trade balance could improve more substantially compared with the earlier part of the year.

High imports reflect the intensity of the production cycle

The composition of imports shows that most current import demand is linked to production activity. During the first nine months, imports of production inputs reached USD 426.92 billion, accounting for 94.1% of total imports. Machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts represented 58.3%, while raw materials, fuels and other materials accounted for 35.8%. Consumer goods represented only 5.9%.

Notably, imports of electronics, computers and components reached nearly USD 188.94 billion, up 71.7%, while imports of other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached nearly USD 53.95 billion, up 21.9%. This indicates that the high level of imports is accompanying the expansion of production and industrial supply chains rather than being driven primarily by demand for imported consumer goods.

The trade balance in the coming period will therefore depend significantly on whether export growth can catch up with the preceding cycle of input imports. September’s return to a trade surplus is an encouraging initial signal, but the cumulative nine-month figures still show that the economy requires a very large volume of imported inputs to sustain its current growth rate.

Strong growth, but with increasing divergence

Overall, the nine-month data show an economy growing rapidly but unevenly across its main drivers. GDP increased by 9.01%, the IIP by 12.3%, asset accumulation by 17.88%, merchandise exports by 24.5%, and total realized investment across the economy by 15.1%. By comparison, real retail sales increased by 7.8% and final consumption by 8.51%.

This structure shows that production, exports and asset accumulation are advancing faster than domestic demand. Strong exports are supporting high production growth, but export expansion remains concentrated in the FDI sector, while the domestic sector is recording much slower export growth and a substantial trade deficit.

The challenge in the next phase is therefore not simply to maintain a high headline growth rate. More important will be the ability to broaden the benefits of growth across the domestic business sector, strengthen domestic demand and improve the efficiency of the rapidly expanding asset base.

Implications for business leaders

For businesses serving the domestic market, the nine-month data suggest caution in using headline GDP growth as a proxy for market demand. Consumption continues to grow, but at a significantly slower pace than production, exports and asset accumulation. Revenue planning therefore needs to be based more closely on the real purchasing power of individual market segments, pricing capacity and inventory turnover.

For manufacturers and exporters, external markets are providing a stronger source of momentum. However, the concentration of exports in the FDI sector also highlights the need for domestic businesses to strengthen their participation in production chains expanding within Vietnam. The opportunity is not limited to direct exports; it also lies in supplying products, components and services to major export-oriented companies.

The rapid pace of asset accumulation also raises the bar for efficiency. Businesses should not evaluate expansion plans solely by the size of additional assets or expected revenue. They need to assess how much revenue, profit and cash flow those additional assets can generate. When the domestic market is growing more slowly than production, expanding too quickly without sufficiently secure demand can increase inventories, receivables and financing requirements.

In this environment, business restructuring should focus on asset quality, operating efficiency and cash-generation capacity. Capital raising and M&A decisions should also begin with a clear growth strategy: where the new resources will be deployed, which assets are genuinely required, and whether post-transaction cash generation will be sufficient to support the expanded scale of the business.

The key message from the nine-month data, therefore, is not simply that Vietnam is growing rapidly. Growth is being driven strongly by production, exports and asset accumulation, while domestic demand and the domestic business sector are not advancing at the same pace. For business leaders, the advantage in the next phase will belong to companies that can select the right markets, deploy assets efficiently and preserve cash flow as they expand.

Data source: Statistics Office, Report on the Socio-Economic Situation in the Third Quarter and First Nine Months of 2026.

Photo: Nguyen Vinh Quang